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.Mac: Future of a sleeping giant?
Merlin Mann | Jan 18 2008
My tall, new friend Scott McNulty interviewed me yesterday for TUAW’s Macworld coverage — unintentionally providing me a fine bully pulpit from which to perpetuate my baseless theories and half-baked forecasts about how Apple might eat the lunches of about three different industries over the next couple years. If they can pull it off, if they can fix .Mac, and if they have the vision to re-imagine themselves as the company who makes your entire digital world safe, fun, ubiquitous, and flawlessly integrated. Anyhow, on with the motley, but stay tuned after the jump for value-added hand-waving. So, exactly what the hell nonsense am I talking about here? [Admission: This is a super-fast first draft of an admittedly far-fetched idea that’s still taking shape, but I really wanted to get it out of my head while it’s still fresh-ish] As the record shows, I’m practically useless as a technology forecaster, but I can’t help feeling that Apple is slow-broasting some really interesting changes over the next year or two, centering around the currently enfeebled .Mac service (cough, cough, cough). In a nutshell, based on products and services — both released and announced — as well as opportunities presented in the marketplace, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any or all of the following changes from Apple (roughly in order).
But, why? Well, in essence, your Mac Pro, your MacBook Air, your iPhone, your iPods nano and shuffle, and your Apple TV would all become agents for using the stuff you’ve stored on .Mac. Heavy (invisible, background) use of rsync-like diffs-syncing (ala Time Capsule?) will ensure that all your devices have the stuff they need, and in the appropriate size and format; e.g., 720p version of Weekend at Bernie’s 2 goes to the TV; more modest size goes to the iPhone, etc. The value and attraction to consumers strikes me as obvious; on the same day, your electronic world becomes ubiquitous, backed-up, and very easy to maintain or access from anyplace. If this is anywhere near do-able, Apple would be taking the concepts behind Spotlight, Time Machine, iTunes, and Smart Folders to their logical conclusion, creating an environment where Apple sits at the center of all your electronic needs, contextually syncing and serving what you need, when you need it, in a totally seamless fashion. In conjunction, I’ll bet we’re going to see an explosion in alliances with companies like Google (for online apps), plus a heavy push for companies like Amazon and Disney to build iPhone apps that will leverage access to both the cloud and your increasingly PayPal-like .Mac account. (“Buy the song I just heard on this Disneyland ride, deliver four sets of Mickey Mouse ears to our hotel room, plus show me the best vegan snack within 5 minutes’ walk of where I’m standing”). Think about it: a new lightweight laptop with a small hard drive; an iPhone that’s getting dangerously close to becoming a remote for your home and life; an Apple TV that doesn’t even require a computer; an iPod Touch that (rather mysteriously) now needs your credit card info and a login to get new apps onto the device. Then, fold in a couple big spoonfuls of the company’s clearly increasing interest in becoming the people who sell or rent you the entertainment media that goes on all the machines you bought from them. I dunno. I suppose it’s my (still congealing) contention that right now, Apple deliberately keeps .Mac a dim-witted, sleeping giant. It’s so unsexy, broken, and behind-the-times right now as to seem like a product out of a less forward-thinking company. But what happens when that giant wakes up, stretches, and then starts standing in the middle of every single product Apple (and its partners) have to sell? It’s so mind-boggling to consider the implications, especially given that it stands as one of the few persuasive explanations for why such a smart company would stay so quiet for so long about allowing a premium pay service go to seed this badly. I think something is up. Big time. But, what do you think?Am I high? Will Apple make .Mac the center of their consumer offering? Or will it just continue to frustrate its paying customers until Google replicates all its services for free? What did you see in the tea leaves after the keynote? 21 Comments
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They need to go back to the drawing board with .macSubmitted by manp on January 18, 2008 - 1:46pm.
I hope you’re right. I feel a sucker for having paid the $100. The product simply doesn’t work. I thought it’d be a great solution for syncing my work imac and my home macbook, but now I’ve decided to go back to one computer - probably a MBP. All I can say is this doesn’t feel like an Apple product! @manp »
You are highSubmitted by robgnyc on January 18, 2008 - 1:52pm.
I think your record on predicitions stands. I don’t think your idea is bad (one tiny molecule in my fingertip could be one entire universe…) I just think you are giving Apple far too much credit. The Google train has already left the station on this. I set up Google Apps for my domain recently and it’s already become pretty central for my business life. Once I’m locked in with that, why would I want to switch to Apple’s pay service again? Plus Google has the advantage of working with every computer in the universe. Forget synching, everything lives on Google. I dunno I think you are thinking, hey if Apple is going to sell an overpriced laptop with no peripherals, a small hard drive and one USB port, ergo they must have some sort of cloud computing strategy, but for some reason, I don’t think they do. The Mac Air and the iTV2 are both simply the new Cube, beautiful, cool looking and largely useless. »
Syncng is hardSubmitted by pedstrom on January 18, 2008 - 1:55pm.
Having experienced the pitfalls of many synchronization-focused products, this is a hard one to get right. I think Apple is up to the task if they want to, but I am inclined to think this would be a long-term goal and we won’t see it any time soon. I love the idea - essentially dumb terminals were the MacBook Air is the “dumb” and the internet is the “server” - but today we are still dealing with iPhones that need to be plugged in instead of downloading podcasts wirelessly. A feat that should be easy. Anyway, I like it. I think you are on to something. Don’t know that it’ll be soon. »
I also hope it comes true one daySubmitted by brab on January 18, 2008 - 2:14pm.
As I use several computers, and have been for a while, I hope this comes true some day. Sharing data is fairly easy, if one takes the time to set it up. You mention SuperDuper, I personally use Unison (http://www.cis.upenn.edu/~bcpierce/unison/index.html), and they work great as long as one only cares about the bits, not what they mean. I can easily duplicate my iPhoto library, or my iTunes store, but as these programs do not “understand” what the bytes mean, I cannot be more fine grained (such as synchronizing only a subset of my photo or music libraries). Yet I would love to be able take a (smart folder) subset of those libraries on my laptop, where space is limited. For iPhoto, it seems that .Mac already has an answer. Not yet for iTunes. And this is definitely something that could make me a paying .Mac subscriber. One funny thing is that my day to day job is as researcher in computer science. And one thing I’ve studied, with many people much smarter than me, is the issue of data synchronization. This has made me realize this is a marketing and engineering problem, not a research problem (anymore), for a basic solution. In other words, what’s really missing now is some company deciding to attack this problem, and committing the engineering resources to it. I hope Apple will do it, through its .Mac service, as this would be the seamless solution for many consumers. But I also hope some external approaches (such as the Portal project from the My Dream App contest) get somewhere. In any case, I believe that this small problem for me is a problem for many other persons. Thanks for reading all this. Alan Schmitt »
.Mac isn't the only broken Apple productSubmitted by hyperblazer on January 18, 2008 - 2:24pm.
"right now, Apple deliberately keeps .Mac a dim-witted, sleeping giant. It's so unsexy, broken, and behind-the-times right now as to seem like a product out of a less forward-thinking company." sed 's/\.Mac/the Finder/' I agree that .Mac needs to be rethought. But I don't think that is indicative of Apple planning to rethink it. »
High, nay........Submitted by LiamH on January 18, 2008 - 2:27pm.
MM is spot on. It’s bloody obvious. I have three Macs, two at home, one at work plus a Touch. Given that I do not have three versions of me with three different requirements to I would love some consistency between the 4. At the moment I only get that with a few Google apps. Otherwise I have to arse around with syncing, which for a dumbass like me means that I always have one machine chasing the others which in turn eventually farks up the others. All I want is consistency between my machines and given that I pay Apple close to £100 a year for .Mac that;s not a big ask and if it was done right I’d even pay more. »
Why Google Can Do This and Apple Can't or Won'tSubmitted by robgnyc on January 18, 2008 - 3:26pm.
Google wants your data so they can advertise to you. The more you muck about with their stuff, the more eyeballs they have and the more of your data they can sell to advertisers. Not knocking Google but this is what they do. We get great web apps. I’m OK with this deal. Apple sells hardware and dabbles in media increasingly. They don’t care so much about your data beyond your buying their goods and services. Syncing your data isn’t sexy, it isn’t profitable. Selling you beautiful machines it. Selling you media is. I love Apple and they do great stuff, I just don’t see syncing as such a great quest for them. I mean once your iTunes library is bigger than your iPod, you are pretty much screwed synching wise. That doesn’t seem to bother anyone at Apple. Even if they wanted to do the kinda thing Merlin suggests, I think they’d be hamstrung by digital rights management in the media department. They don’t really own the content so as much as they’d like to send a copy to your 1080p TV and another copy optimized for your iPhone, the people whose hold the copyrights in their infinite paranoia want you to pay twice. Good idea, ain’t going to happen. »
the problem(s) with .Mac, etc.Submitted by Remiss63 on January 18, 2008 - 3:53pm.
I agree with the above criticism of .Mac as an expensive service that doesn’t perform adequately. The model Google is implementing (providing an increasingly wide range of online services without charge based primarily upon advertising income) doesn’t seem to be one that Apple will follow. There’s no question .Mac needs to be revamped entirely. However, a great place to start would be to provide one year of .Mac free (or for a nominal fee) to anyone purchasing any Mac computer, iPhone or iPod Touch. Then they need to develop online apps that will rival Google’s. They do not need to be free to the public, probably better if they are not. However, an integrated suite of apps that work seamlessly with Mac computers, iPhones, and iPod Touches would provide the kid of private, exclusive club atmosphere that attract many people to purchase their incredibly well-designed products. Apple’s success with iTunes needs to be followed up quickly or they might end up one of multiple online music sellers. Simply by undercutting price, offering special features, packages, etc., Amazon and others can eat away at their near monopoly. Apple knows it needs to do with video what they’ve done with music. It seems to me that Google has diluted itself to some extent, trying to do many many things. As long as they are done well and function properly, that’s great. To compete, Apple needs special features and programs that will accomplish things that cannot be done via Google. The ultimate goal of allowing iPhone users to easily purchase and download information to any of their Macs seems like a very logical step. Somehow the iPhone needs to work completely wirelessly (except for power recharging). Perhaps they need to purchase a highly secure Bluetooth-like communication system. The only explanation I have for the lack of Bluetooth on iPhones is a concern with security and hacking. If Apple had a wireless method that automatically included hard encryption, that would ease many minds (consumers and media companies alike). The MacBook Air is absolutely the latest, coolest version of the Cube. If Apple is serious about pushing everything in the wireless direction, it needs to deal with integrating their multiplicity of devices so they all work together cooperatively (at a minimum). Purchasing a movie using your iPhone to download to your computer (or AppleTV) so you can watch it when you get back home over the weekend would be just one example of such integration. If designed and implemented properly .Mac has the potential to pull these disparate functions and appliances together as an integrated suite of “lifestyle devices”. I believe a key factor in making .Mac a dynamic, rapidly expanding service is to provide an API platform for users to develop applications to perform magical feats of integration that no one on earth can presently imagine. Like? Well ordering custom paint colors to be mixed and ready for you to pick up that you found surfing Flickr groups, composing and sending cards and matching flowers, ordering food to be ready at a particular restaurant at the time you will be arriving (based on a cooking podcast you just watched or a scene in a movie you viewed on your iPod Touch, etc.) The combinations of functions are not predictable because they will be based upon instinct, emotion, appetite, and the general desire for instant gratification. Apple needs to find the way to speed people to all of the things they want in life: a bison burger, Japanese rice paper, a Fellini movie, a sitcom theme-song, French Fries hand delivered to their apartment, custom-made pizza delivered to your car, etc., etc. No one can predict these sorts of things in advance. If Apple can use .Mac to become THE cool lifestyle implementation connection, they will have found manna from Jobs. »
yes, but... differentSubmitted by shecky on January 18, 2008 - 3:55pm.
merlin, i agree with you except in location. i think that your data (your ~/user/library folder) should be available to you everywhere, but not let it live in the cloud (on a .mac server somewhere) but instead let it live in your office, on a new sexy looking Apple box thats essentially a “versioning media server.” a box that seamlessly talks to apple hardware (laptop, phone, apple tv, ipod, desktop, etc.) through the cloud and delivers appropriately sized content to each, as well as keeps all changes, etc. synced. that way your data lives in a physical box that can be upgraded, changed, backed up, moved, etc. by YOU as opposed to leaving that data in someone else’s hands. »
Everywhere?Submitted by goofyfut on January 18, 2008 - 8:58pm.
I think Apple is trying to make your “stuff” available to you anywhere but not everywhere. You, through purchasing their products or devices, define the how. When I got a glimpse at what Back To My Mac could do for me, I was stunned. (then it broke). I don’t know. I still get the warm fuzzies when I log into work from home and I see my work desktop come up. »
About Merlin MannBio Merlin Mann is an independent writer, speaker, and broadcaster. He’s best known for being the guy who started the website you’re reading right now. He lives in San Francisco, does lots of public speaking, and helps make cool things like You Look Nice Today. Also? He looks like this, answers questions, and has something like a life. Merlin’s favorite thing he’s written recently is a short essay called, “Better.” |
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